Yea....you know, there are so many variables which make up infection rate that studies like this are always going to be subject to second-guessing. It's an inexact science at best. Certainly the fact that some cities or counties had mandates while the broader state didn't is certainly one of them.
But, we do what we can with the data we have. I think the broad point, which is that mask-wearing is no guarantee of safety and mask-avoidance is no guarantee of illness is where we have to leave it.