What the hell?

Italy is in a later stage

That’s not relevant to overall mortality rate, statistically speaking. We work off percentages, not gross numbers.

has a much older population

Median age of 45 vs the US’s 38. Mortality rate at age 45 is .4%, mortality rate at age 38 is .26%. (source: World Health Organization)

Current Italian mortality rate is 7.7%, per Johns Hopkins. US current mortality rate is 1.7%.

Now, look at those two sets of numbers. You could MAYBE make the case that US mortality would be 50% if we had the same age demographic. MAYBE. But arguing that age demographic accounts for a mortality rate which is 450% higher……shit, don’t even try.

Everyone is packed in cities on a tiny peninsula.

And? According to that “reasoning”, places with universal care that have even higher population densities should have higher mortality than Italy. Let’s have a look:

  • Singapore is FAR more dense (almost 8000 per km2 compared to 200 per km2 in Italy) yet their mortality rate is ZERO.
  • Japan has a single payer system and has higher population density than Italy, and their mortality rate is 3.3%. (Also, a much older population.)
  • Taiwan has a single payer system and has high population density than Italy, and their mortality rate is 1.5%.
  • Hong Kong has universal care and is denser than hell. Mortality rate is 2.6%.
  • Spain has a single payer system and higher population density than Italy. Mortality rate is 3.3%.
  • And again, here is the US sitting at 1.7%, DESPITE the fact that our first disease vector found its way into a nursing home and wreaked havoc there. Statistically, there couldn’t have been a more unfortunate way to start.

Find any common threads there? No, you didn’t. There is no correlation between population density and mortality. Nor is there any correlation between having a universal care system, a single payer care system, or (like us) no system at all.

Age matters, but we can normalize for that, as I have above.

Look, our “system” is fucked up, mostly because it’s not a “system” at all. It’s a hodgepodge bunch of small to medium sized businesses (doctors offices, hospitals, etc) that operate with very little central coordination, which contributes to its high expense.

But those small and medium sized businesses are staffed with people who are in the process of proving that they are the best medical professionals in the world. Over the last five days, mortality here has been 1.3%, having dropped from as high as 3.7% ten days ago. IOW, people are still getting sick — a lot of them — but they’re not dying.

Why? Because we’re damn good at what we do.

So, sorry, but there’s really no grist for the single payer mill here. If you’re really a journalist, I recommend that you look at the facts FIRST, letting the facts lead you to your conclusions, rather than starting with a conclusion and then trying to find facts to justify your conclusions after you’re challenged. You have a rather large cart-horse problem in your article.

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Data Driven Econophile. Muslim, USA born. Been “woke” 2x: 1st, when I realized the world isn’t fair; 2nd, when I realized the “woke” people are full of shit.

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