You say: “ usage growth forecasts, neither of which the oil company has any control over.” But all these forecasts are always way off. Everybody makes them according to his own worldviews and wishes.
Well, they are not always way off, and when they are, it’s not always due to bias. In my experience, the “way off” errors that give forecasters a bad reputation are those in the out years, because smaller near term errors compound. It’s usually a math problem or an assumption problem.
Yes, economists “are subject to a host of biases”, therefor one must examine their work especially carefully. Navarro is wrong to a large extent (and has been “proven” to be by other economists (of course partly with their own biases applied)).
Time will tell. I don’t expect Navarro to get it right, as much as I expect him to move the attention to economic areas where the corporatist globalists prefer the attention not be given.
Regarding “trade cheaters”: give me 1 example where China cheats.
The entire theory of mutual global benefit depends on floating currencies that offset trade imbalances. When an actor pegs its currency, or (even worse) an actor with a trade surplus DEVALUES their currency, what they are in practice doing is keeping all the benefits of the trade for themselves at the expense of their counterparty.
You say correctly “ If government burdens the corporation, they burden the corporations employees”. But do you think the Obama-administration put too much burden on the cooperations? The cooperations are making multibillion$ profits per year!
The Obama Administration was the most business-hostile since the 70’s, possibly before. Those profits were not due to revenue growth, which was famously flat up until the very end of the Obama Admin, but due to vicious cost cutting on the part of the corporations, and the Fed holding interest rates at zero for as long as they did. When the Fed is (for all intents and purposes) funding your working capital for you for free, you can bank a lot of cash.
And there is full employment in the USA!
I am unimpressed by statistics which show us at “full employment” unless we also see the wage growth that is supposed to accompany it. Without wage growth, that means there are still workers sitting on the bench, ready to take a job for whatever they can get it for. Again, we just started to see the glimmering of wage growth during the last year.
That the mass-lier destructs the EPA in a country where — among many other environmental scandals — there is a Flint-water-disaster, is simply Simpsons-ian.
Can’t comment on Flint, don’t know much about it. What I do know is that by law, the EPA is supposed to do certain things, and they were overreaching their charter, which is why they spent so much time in court getting shot down.
You say the Banksters are always running the government, and even did so under Obama. But the mass-lier promised to reverse that….
Time will tell how populist the Trump program is. What I do know is that you have to understand something to fix it. So, if you’re going to move from a Wall Street centric view to a populist view, you probably need somebody from Wall Street who is willing to go rogue on what he knows. Ross isn’t from Wall Street, but he certainly understands them, and is willing to play the part of the rogue. For me, jury is out on Mnuchin.
Ha Ha, the “death-spiral” thesis/prediction of the republicans. The one “fact” to take health care from 20 Million of the poorest. Ha ha ha!
Everything the GOP predicted about the ACA came true. The penalties were insufficient to keep healthy people in the system until they needed it. This led to a sicker insured population, which is more expensive to insure, causing prices to rise, leading more of the healthy to drop out, etc, etc; and as soon as the insurers found they couldn’t tap public money to compensate them for ACA losses, they started to drop out.
Aetna CEO Says Obamacare in a 'Death Spiral'
Aetna Inc. Chief Executive Officer Mark Bertolini escalated his criticism of the Affordable Care Act, saying Obamacare…
As insurers struggled to make money, they cut back on services leading to this:
Obamacare satisfaction falling, survey reveals
Following two years of steady improvements in marketplace health plan satisfaction, the fallout from the departure of…
There’s not much hope for a health care plan where customer sat is down to 22%. But, it will get worse, because…..
Humana predicts earnings increase, will exit Obamacare in 2018 - Insider Louisville
Humana said Tuesday afternoon that it expected earnings to rise this year and that it would exit all Obamacare health…
…and, this year, a third of enrollees have only one insurer choice, and over half have only two. This will erode again for 2018.
One-third of US won't have a choice between Obamacare plans in 2017
The analysis assumes no new carriers will be entering the markets and because of that it acknowledges that it may be…
As I said, I will be glad to discuss health care, as long as it is based on fact. No discussion can make comparisons to a failing program.
You say, there is nothing ” that would lead to a global trade war”.
No, I said this:
There are no proposals for blanket tariffs or anything that would lead to a global trade war.
And there currently are not.
Hm, wow, you don’t believe tourism will decline? But the statistics show that large percentages of Europeans and other nationalities, who previously intended to visit the US for holidays, do not want to do that anymore.
Pique. After the runup to the Iraq war, Americans were so incensed at France that they stopped going to Paris. That didn’t last too long, maybe a year and a half.
And the grandiose job statistics that were published today, was 30000 jobs better than predicted. But the same thing would have happened under Obama, Trump’s economic GoldmanSachs adviser Cohn said today.
Possibly. I think Trump has unleashed some animal spirits. Time will tell.
Trump will certainly not create one single of these jobs.
Presidents never do. They create conditions.
He is already killing Boeing jobs, because with the new taxes, nobody outside of the US will buy any Boeing jets any more.
I have no idea what you’re talking about, and a search on “boeing new taxes” turns up nothing.
He just hired the BurgerKing-King to create BurgerKing jobs. Thats all he knows.
Purtzer withdrew. This is the new labor secretary:
R. Alexander Acosta, Law School Dean, Is Trump's New Pick for Labor
He went on to become the United States attorney for the Southern District of Florida, where his office prosecuted the…
And yes, I am fully aware that they are manipulating the statistics and numbers now. It is called “cheating”.
No, it’s called an inexact science. :-). Unemployment rates are estimates taken by polling with the same “plus or minus X percent” that presidential polling deals with. :-)
You say “ Ambiguity is not a lie.”. (Where I and many others say, it was a clear lie). You are satisfied with ambiguities. You elected the kings of ambiguities. Good luck and much fun with that!
The president is indeed annoyingly imprecise. Which is why it’s important to see what fleshes out on paper rather than words.
Yes, all politicians “lie” to some extent. But the snakeoil salesman and his companions are in a totally different breathtaking league.
We’ve come full circle now. :-)