They lost because a Democrat was in the White House.

Well, it was a little more specific than that. The Democrat in the White House lied about major legislation, which his party then rammed down the throat of the other party without any serious attempt at mitigating their concerns.

Republicans bet on Obamacare being unpopular, but it was unpopular right up until the moment Trump tried to take it away.

Sure. The GOP’s continued miscalculation (and this applies to more than just the ACA dustup) is to assume that when the public supports their opposition to “X””, the public is also supporting their ALTERNATIVE to “X”. This is logically fallacious. The public opposed the ACA, but they did NOT support the GOP’s alternative, which was to pass an HSA alternative (which is a good idea) but was so poorly funded it would have caused more trouble than it solved. A lost opportunity for the GOP.

All that matters is whether Coke or Pepsi is more angry.

Sure. 2018 is about enthusiasm. Nobody is switching sides from right to left.

The only question is how fast the Republican bleeding will be.

Well, it’s not going to be 2006 or 2008; the GOP is unlikely to finish the 2018’s with less than 210 seats. If you have to take a spanking, going down to 210 is relatively light, compared to the 178 seats they held after 2008. THAT was an asswhuppin’.

This is as far as I will go with forecasts.

Agreed; this is why the title to my little series has been “I am not seeing it…”. The data, even when 90 days out, tells you what direction things are leaning, but there are many shoes to fall.

Trump himself said something about how, if you would have run the election 20 different times on 20 different days, it would have come out differently.

Yep. This was about a few votes, no more than 50K (which is a minute percentage of the votes cast) in four different states.

A “toss up” in the margin of error in a heavily-watched race turned out to be a crushing defeat.

Yep. Can happen, as we saw in presidential 2016.

I’m suggesting that enough people have become self-aware of polling that serious problems have been exposed.

There seems to be a growing observer effect.

No one saw that coming. Alabama was supposed to be an easy red.

Well, the older principle that good candidates beat bad candidates still seems to hold true.

I will make one clear forecast only because it is low-hanging fruit: say goodbye to those state houses.

Should be interesting. And dangerous, because the NEXT election is when the party in power gets to gerrymander new districts.

Data Driven Econophile. Muslim, USA born. Been “woke” 2x: 1st, when I realized the world isn’t fair; 2nd, when I realized the “woke” people are full of shit.

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