Well, important point there. When people try to analyze an election and then project the results of one election to the next one four years later, they always seem to forget that the next electorate is four years older.
- There will be a cadre of very old seniors who voted in 2016 who in 2020 will be taking a dirt nap. These are pre-Boomers, and were primarily Democrats.
- The senior citizen group will be more heavily populated by boomers than before. These, the most dependable voters, will become increasingly GOP until 2040 or so, demographically.
- The overall electorate will continue to trend more to minorities, which trend Democrat.
- The millennial group, who is *finally* undergoing household formation after having delaying it for economic reasons, is going to trend right as this occurs. So, your far left will be reeled in to being just “left”, your “left” will become more centrist, and the centrists will move to the right.
- The Z group will enter in, and from early returns, seems like they will trend more libertarian (and not trustful of government) than any group previously. Could trend conservative-libertarian, could trend left-libertarian.
How those forces balance out is anybody’s guess. But the POINT is that expecting the 2020 electorate to behave like the 2016 electorate is a common mistake that doesn’t end usually end well.
And…..the candidates will all be four years older, as well. :-)