- Polls are of marginal value before the race is distilled down to the final two. You can ask people all you like “if it’s between THIS person and THAT person, how will you vote?” but when the final horse race is set…..opinions change.
- The problem with polls is that they assume that 100% of the respondents turn out to vote; and if less turn out to vote, that they will stay away in roughly equal numbers.
- For that reason, the measurements of voter enthusiasm taken by Gallup and others matter significantly in the final weeks. Clinton, although unpopular, was less unpopular than Trump; but higher enthusiasm on the part of Republicans moved the needle to Trump.