Since 1970 GDP and productivity have been detached from wages. That’s why a 1970s family with a single working parent was able to buy a home and a car and send the kids to college.
Not my understanding. The 1970’s family got blindsided by a couple of policy decisions and a headline event. The policy decisions were LBJ’s decision to fight a war without paying for it (the bill he passed late in his term was too little too late) and Nixon’s subsequent decision to inflate away the Vietnam deficits. The headline event was the OPEC embargo, which was inflationary thoughout the economy.
When we got to the other side of those events, quite right: All of a sudden everything was a helluvalot more expensive than it was for Ward and June Cleaver; in order to maintain the same standard of living, everyone’s Mrs. had to go out to work (which actually restored the status quo that had prevailed for the other 5950 years of human history).
Unless you have a paper that is evidentiary to the contrary, I’d have to stick with my position that the correlation between wage and contribution to GDP is still in place, with certain limited exceptions, and that the relationship between the two can be at times disturbed by Black Swan-type events.
Obama’s policies helped the economy, but not the workers.
Hm. Those are not entirely different things, you understand. You can have a strong economy without helping workers, but you can’t help workers without a strong economy, it should be said.
That said, nobody who is involved with the economy thinks that Obama helped the economy; he was obsessed with regulatory matters, not growth. But whatever your view on that in particular, there is no arguing the point that Fed policies were the most important economic driving force during the recovery period.
Trump’s policies help the economy, not the workers and he throws in a bunch of environmental and systemic time bombs. Claiming that either of them is great for actual, non-corporate Americans is politicized idiocy.
It’s an 18 trillion dollar economy.
It takes time, sometimes a LOT of time, to finally judge how particular policies are going to broadly play out systemically. Economies of this size cannot be turned on a dime.
Ergo, it is WAY too early to figure out the impact of Trump’s policies on the overall economy and workforce; we don’t even had a full tax season with them in our rearview mirrors as of yet.
We’ll be able to judge matters better perhaps by the end of next year, and it will of course take several years to see how his policies more broadly turn out.
I’d rather wait and read the data than guess, personally.