Prior publications in this series:
Volume 4: Well, we are now within 90 days of election day, and finally, I AM seeing it, although the signals are still mixed.
- The RCP aggregates now show 199 seats leaning or safe Dem, compared to 196 seats leaning or safe GOP. Split the 40 seats in tossup down the middle, and you get a 219–216 Democrat house. So, this is your first warning; but be of good cheer. Democrats have a remarkable ability to hand back what they win in a short period of time, 2006–2010 being the last iteration, because they always assume that a national win means that the electorate has shifted to the left ideologically. Nonsense, of course; this would be an election won due to “enthusiasm”, and enthusiasm fades over time. So, the Dems will overreach, they’ll sink into infighting (the congresspeople who win in Trump districts will know full well that holding their seat depends on them voting from the center), the Dems wills start targeting DINOs, and we’ll do it all again in 2020.
- Is all lost? Well, no. Campaigns can generate pretty swift shifts over short periods of time, and counter-intuitively, the generic ballot, which reached 8.2% for the Dems on June 15, has now narrowed to 5.0%. It seems that ever wave of enthusiasm that rises from the Left generates a milder, counterbalancing wave of enthusiasm from the Right. Further, the left-leaning Quinnipiac poll, currently showing Dem +12%, is an outlier , and is about to be replaced by a newer poll. So, that 5% may easily drop into the 4’s by the end of the week.
- Out of the 40 tossup seats, 38 are held by the GOP. It will be interesting to see if there’s a lean towards those voters to “come home” near Election Day. If that occurs, then the GOP could still hold.
- On the Senate side, the RCP call is for the House to hold it’s same makeup as it has today. View this as a “lost opportunity”.
Be of good cheer. :-)