Historically, VPs who take succeed to POTUS due to death or resignation only have a 50/50 chance of winning.
Yes. But the 2000 election was razor close. Assuming all other factors remain the same (big “if”) incumbency would have been enough to push Gore over, I would think.
However, even if he had won I think we would still have had the Second Gulf War. People today forget that Gore was a hawk.
True. But the idea of entering Iraq in the first place came from the GOP neocons, and required heavy salesmanship against Democrat pushback by the POTUS and VP, and required the credibility of Powell to make it happen. None of those factors would have been in place under Gore. I have to believe that in the face of pushback from his own party, we would not have escalated out of Afghanistan.
If Gore did win and the invasion of Iraq turned out in the 2004 cycle anything like it did in actual history, had Bush decided to try again I think he’d have had a chance. He would have had the “stolen election” meme on his side, Gore would have been suffering in the public eye, and Bush’s charismatic affability likely would have had him in office in 2004, pitting potentially Obama against an affable incumbent in 2008 as opposed to McCain. It is easy to see the war Bush and forget how charming and charismatic he was.
Possibly, but he still would have hit his head against the economic disaster of 2008. I don’t think that event was survivable for a POTUS.
While the major events would not have changed much at that point, the candidate pool could have been dramatically different. We couldn’t even say if Obama would have even run in 2008. Would a press that had dealt with a hawkish Gore presidency and all the baggage that came with it have given him the attention needed? More poignantly, would he have even had that address at the convention that launched the sequence of events?
Obviously as you extrapolate into time, the events become less certain. What we do know is that Obama had been seen as being groomed as early as 2003, and netted that prime convention speaking spot in 2004 even while still unelected.
That opportunity was due to his involvement with then-candidate John Kerry in his 2004 bid. A sitting Gore POTUS in 2004 makes a huge difference in the Demcrats’ primaries in 2004. If Gore wanted to run for re-election, would Kerry have run?
Couldn’t. Finishing the first POTUS’s term still counts as Gore’s first. He would have been term limited in 2004. So, the chances (statistical) of the Presidency flipping after the Gore term would have been about 80%.
But I do think that absent that keynote by Obama he would not have been the 2008 candidate. That was, in my estimation, the critical turning point in the path to Obama’s presidency.
I agree, but I don’t see any reason why he wouldn’t have been given it. He still would have been campaigning for the Senate in 2004, and he checked all the boxes of somebody they wanted to groom.
But I do think we could reasonably draw a line from Gore winning to Trump not winning, and probably not even running.
Well, we’re assuming that the country would have had the come-to-Jesus meeting on sexual abuse in the late 90’s rather than today. If so, then Trump would have been persona non gratis.
Next, I will be predicting the price of a bitcoin in 2020. :-)