although Turkey has a lot of Kurdish population

Fair enough. Point here is that about 2M of @ 35M Kurds live in Syria. If you want to go on a porgrom against Kurds….you don’t need to invade Syria to do it.

Now…. the American forces presence is what stopped Erdogan from continuing

Interesting theory. Popular with the neocons. I don’t put much stock in it myself. It stretches the boundaries of logic.

… just like with a lot of other things, it is not about the numbers.. the presence of one single military “observer” among the Kurdish units is enough to stop Turkey ( or anyone else) from acting

So, you’re basically arguing that we are effective in our role as human shields. Possibly, I suppose.

As for the “Kurdish threat” being used by Erdogan to gather support. Unfortunately it is not only him, ever since the 80-s every Turkish government has been using the PKK ( and their occasional actions) as an excuse for all sorts of things… They could have ended the insurrection a long time ago- but it is not in the general interest of the Turkish state. Yes, if the elections were only Istanbul HE would loose. But the country is never only one or two cities… and elections are a numbers game

On that part we agree.

… Thing is, that the incursions in Syria are being used for much more than simply getting some more support for the Sultan…

Well, when somebody comes up with a useful theory as to why Erdogan wants to have a go at it when the Russians are on the other side, it will be worth considering.

the way I see it, he is counting on not only excersizing control over northern Syria… but he will do whatever he can to keep that control long time after the entire Syria mess is over

So, you think that he wants to occupy an Iranian and Russian ally, thus pissing both of them off, in a territory which contains 2M of the best trained asymmetric fighters in the world, while at the same time infuriating another 12 million of those asymmetric fighters that already live within his own borders?

Read that slowly. It’s why my relatives in Northern Syria are laughing hysterically at this notion. First off, Erdogan is not either so rich or stupid as to stick his army into an eternal occupation. Secondly, he’d inflame his own Kurdish population. Thirdly, he’d give his affluent and educated opposition a wedge issue to use against him. Fourth, he’d be opening himself up for Iranian retribution, even if this myth of “Putin’s blessing were to be true; and Fifth, Putin’s not so stupid as to get involved in creating this mess.

since you mentioned al Qamishli ( and I seriously hope that your family came out of the mess in 2016 OK — the town was almost completely flattened )

There were a couple of bombings, but they were limited in scope. The town was virtually untouched.

Once Erdogan figured out which side he will be keeping on the long run, the Turkish rout got closed

The Turkish border at al-Qamishley is and has been consistently closed to all for some time.

so you know who and what you are …. who is it that you are trying to convince???

All other Americans like myself who do not believe that the US should be engaged in eternal war, but tend to be susceptible to neocon propaganda like “All the Kurds will die if we leave.”

Regarding the qualifiers, there are many in the US, quite unfortunately, for whom the idea that a Muslim can be a born American is cognitively dissonant. Please don’t tell me you haven’t noticed that.

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Data Driven Econophile. Muslim, USA born. Been “woke” 2x: 1st, when I realized the world isn’t fair; 2nd, when I realized the “woke” people are full of shit.

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