It’s worth noting first and foremost that Obama’s 2008 vote count was almost 4 million higher than Clinton’s in 2016. Even his 2012 vote count was higher than Clinton’s in 2016, though only by a scant hundred-thousand votes or so. And, of course, the population of the United States was smaller in 2008 and 2012 than in 2016.
It’s doubly illogical to believe that the platform that quite clearly could not compete in 2016 will have any chance of competing in the future, when Millennials and Generation Z voters represent a larger proportion of the electorate, because all data shows that younger Democratic voters skewed far to the left of establishment neoliberals.
Other issues also cloud the future:
- Household formation. Historically, household formation, which has been delayed for the millenials due to the financial stresses of the recession and unimpressive recovery, lead to young voters who are not ideologically attached to the Dems shifting parties. This would accentuate the trend you cite, where the % of Democrats skew to the left, still further.
- I don’t know if the next “gen” has a name yet, but early returns indicate that this post-millenial group is more conservative than the millenials are, much the way the early- and mid- boomers were the ones protesting on campuses in the 60’s, while the late-boomers got MBAs and voted for Reagan.
At any rate, both points lead to your conclusion where a larger % of Dems trend leftwards in the future.
The Republican base is less educated, votes with lower information, is generally more bigoted and racist, and is, in short, less principled. I realize that’s harsh to say, but the numbers bear it out.
I work with numbers all the time such as these, and my conclusions indicate that although what you say is true, but the statistical differences are not as significant as most on the left think they are. For example, in the last GSS survey, IIRC, 14% of Republicans believed that interracial marriage should be outlawed. That sounds like a great anti-GOP talking point, but it’s never used, because 10% of Democrats polled believe the same thing. Almost all the questions that could be interpreted to show racism have the same sort of result: The GOP is more racist than the Dems, but the difference between the parties is so small that you can’t make a talking point out of it.
At any rate, let’s leave the bigoted/racist matter aside for a moment and focus on education.
Only 33% of America has a college degree, and that stat is likely to remain static or even diminish in the future, and “educated jobs” gain a reputation for being “outsourceable”, while plumber and electrician jobs cannot be disposed of so easily. The left keeps harping on this “education” gap; I say be careful to not break your arm as you pat yourself on the back. It takes a special sort of insanity to think you can win an election by playing up to the educated and ignoring the working class. You cannot win an election with 33% of the vote.
At a certain point, voters on the left simply will not vote for corporate sellouts and unprincipled liars.
Well, that’s about 95% of all politicians, so……. :-)
Their donors probably benefit more from having Republicans in office than progressives in office, so the DNC has little incentive to try to get progressive votes or push for progressive policies, since individual politicians can keep enriching themselves in heavily blue districts for a while without any threat of losing to a Republican, even if Democrats remain the minority party.
Damn, that’s a good point. I am embarrassed I never thought about it. And means the Party is even more FUBARed than I previously considered. And those safe blue-district Democrats sit far more comfortably if they do NOT rock that boat than if they do.
I think any change will either come from a splinter faction within the Democratic Party or from an Independent or third-party surge. The appointment of Perez to the head of the DNC made it clear where the Democratic establishment stands.
Bingo. I would have to note here that the Dems in Congress were all unified in their anti-Trump stances……until Trump started dropping bombs on people.
You’re a lib, I’m a con, but both of us are stuck in the same maze, and it seems like the only way out is to get by the Minotaur. Not good.