I was inspired to create a bunch of new charts today because of…..eh, doesn’t matter. I was inspired. :-) Let’s just say that we live by data and not by emotion, and leave it at that.
So, here goes:
This particular chart has some good news which is not immediately apparent: that being that worldwide mortality has started to recede. Two weeks ago, that mortality line was at 7%, so receding to 6.7% is an improvement of sorts. This is attributable, most likely, to the advent of large-scale testing of asymptomatic populations, which increases the denominator of the equation whist the numerator stays relatively static.
The Deaths per Capita chart is now staying relatively unchanged, and I don’t expect it to change much from here on out. It is what it is. Post mortems will have to tell us later how much of this is reality, and how much of it is bad data reporting.
Now, let’s move on to some USA-specific charts:
I find this chart….counter-intuitive, but if true, this is cause for optimism. With testing ramping up, AND lock-downs ending, daily cases reported should be on the rise…..but aren’t. (That curve, btw, is a 2nd degree polynomial curve which seems to be best-fit for the the data. Time will tell if it has any predictive value or not.)
This chart is somewhat less optimistic, and shows that we are following along the top of the now-proverbial “flattened curve”. There is some good news, in that the last three days have shown a trend to the negative, with 5/11 having the fewest deaths reported since March 31; but one data point is not a trend.
This is the chart that I really would like to see move lower. As you can see, the US mortality rate seems to have peaked, but has been travelling along the same rate for a couple of weeks now. Again, with increased testing and our doctors getting better at treating COVID19 all the time, I hope to see a rate decrease soon.
Now, let’s move on to some state data:
The big bear in the room here has to be addressed, that being that nationally, @ 45% of the total cases and @57% of the total deaths are within range of the Greater New York City mass transit area. This has tremendous implications on how we prepare for living with this virus over the next year. Policymakers in urban transit areas must balance their re-open plans with the risk their transit systems pose to public health AND/OR prepare for the influx of personal passenger vehicles in already crowded city streets and expressways. That said, policymakers in areas which are *not* heavy users of mass transit must resist “one-size-fits-all” policies sourced from heavy mass transit areas.
What about testing?
As you can see, certain states which were previously being maligned for their lack of testing overall have made significant progress, according to the worldindata dataset. Kaiser has another dataset which tallies only tests with results, which would be trailing data of the above. I have a lot of trust in Kaiser, so I’ll be watching that one to see if it reflects the above over the next week or so.
At any rate, there’s one set of snapshots in time. Stay home if you can, but if you can’t, take proper precautions.