This is just off the top of my head. I wanted to pick three winners and three losers from the experience of quarantine and social distancing. (If you were hoping for a controversial political article…..this isn’t it. Move along, nothing here to see….)
- US Manufacturing. Unless all our politicians are totally stupid and incompetent (yes, the chances of that are not zero) there will be a political consensus of some type that will require certain products currently manufactured in China to be manufactured in the USA. Medical equipment and pharmaceuticals will head the list, but hopefully that list will include a fair number of products that we simply must have manufacturing capability (in part) for, and as consumers we’ll have to buck up and pay a little bit more for. And, that leads us to the next winner, which is…..
- The US Blue Collar middle class worker. Manufacturing workers, even high tech ones, are relatively well paid; and when you manufacture things, you need inventory and shipping capabilities to support.
- Homeschooling. Without a doubt, most parents will be glad to hand these kids back over to the school from whence they came. But a nontrivial percentage of parents are going to say “You know, this is kind of fun, and I like being with my children all the time” and keep going with it.
- Restaurants. I think it doubtless that high-density restaurants are going to have trouble packing them in at the same volumes they once did. Diners are going to demand more open space in restaurants, meaning fewer diners per hour in comparison to the past. And that concept leads us to our next loser, which is…..
- Sporting and Special Events. Anyone want to sit elbow to elbow with some guy blowing his nose? Sporting and special events (concerts, et al) depend on shoving a maximum number of people in a finite space to pay for the performers and athletes, and those volumes just might not be there for awhile. And finally, tied in with the first item on the Winner’s List above, our last loser is…..
- China. A nontrivial number of lives were lost due to these ancient communist dinosaurs’ inability to admit what was going on in Wuhan. They punished the medical professionals who tried to warn the world, and continued to deny that COVID was transmissible person to person all the way up to mid-January. There needs to be a concerted and organized effort in the world to extract a pound of flesh from these insecure idiots, and put an end to our financing their nonsense.