The US withdrawal , which is being announced just a couple of days after Erdogan said he is planning a new offensive against the Kurds, i a gift to Erdogan. The Turkish army has been ready to attack Kurds in the central Euphrates valley for a long time now. The only thing stopping them was the presence of American forces embedded with the Kurdish units…

Cock and bull nonsense.

  1. 90% of the Kurds in the world live in Turkey. If Erdogan wants to start a “new offensive against Kurds”, he has no need to cross an international border to do so.
  2. The Kurdish units, backed by the SDF first, Russians second, and then finally the US, who have far fewer boots in the game, have adequately prevented ISIS from moving into the north border cities for over five years running. The US only got “embedded” in the last two years.
  3. The Kurds have done the heavy lifting in this war; we have advisors that they like, but don’t need all that much. They’ve been doing this for decades on various fronts. They are seasoned fighters.
  4. The Kurds have no military bases to attack. They are experts at the practice of asymmetric warfare, something the US has only book knowledge of. It’s far more likely the Kurds were protecting US, than vice versa.
  5. Kurds live in those northeaster border cities in the same neighborhoods as ethnic Arabs and Aramaic Christians. The only way for the Turks to attack them is to go door to door and ask a bunch of people who all look alike if they are Kurds or not. Suffice to say that any Turks trying this would be made to be dead very quickly (see comment on asymmetric warfare above).
  6. Having a small number of boots IN Syria is largely irrelevant to protecting anyone. There is a military base about 150 km away from the major northern center of al-Qamishly (where my family is from) across the border in Iraq. If the Turks come in an misbehave, it is actually MORE efficient to run sorties from Iraq than it is from those crappy little airstrips that we built in Syria.
  7. But, it’s all bullshit anyway. Know why? Because Erdogan is all talk. Pumping up the “threat of the Kurds” is how he keeps his base supporting him. Erdogan’s base is in the Eastern cities, the ones that actually have a Kurdish population than they can discriminate against. If the Turkish election was Istanbul only, he’d get drummed out on his ass, and he knows it. This is Turkish politics as usual.

If anything, this will become another example of what happens to US allies after they are not needed any more… It will loose even the little trust that the americans may have in the region, while pushing even more water ( so to say) towards Putin-s mill.

It constantly amazes me that people believe that the US, who has no respect for international borders and who sets up shop wherever they like, whenever they like, and for as long as they like, have any trust left to lose.

SO, yes, it was a gift.. a gift for ERdogan, with some spill overs for Putin

It’s no gift for Erdogan, who may end up putting Turkish bodies at risk. And like it or not, Russia is the Syrian government’s invited partner in-theatre.

They belong there; we do not.

Written by

Data Driven Econophile. Muslim, USA born. Been “woke” 2x: 1st, when I realized the world isn’t fair; 2nd, when I realized the “woke” people are full of shit.

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