All good observations.
Yes, it’s quite clear from market history that Mr. Market overreacts to headline events. That said, engaging in market timing behaviors on such a micro level leave one fully exposed to the broader problem of market timing, that being that it’s impossible and never been shown to work. There are simply too many variables in the equation.
There has never been a headline event, in my experience, that changed a bull market to a bear, and vice versa. If the underlying economic movement is positive, a headline event may cause a nasty adjustment, but the market should then recover and continue what it was doing over time prior to the event.
Similarly, a bear cycle might get a quick positive from good news, but then immediately resume it’s erratic course. Can you thing of an example of good news during a secular bear period where the market then resumed its prior behavior, or would the Watergate example (extended period taken to recover) be the norm, do you think?