Governors on both sides of the “open” issue mention how different the situation is in different states. Here’s how different it is:
So you can see from this, I hope, why the governors of, say, Wyoming and Alaska might say “Uh, guys…..we’re not New York City. And never will be.”
And they won’t. The NY/NJ axis above (and also Massachusetts and Illinois) demonstrates what I have been pointing out for some time now — — that heavily used rapid transit systems seem to have a significant correlation to infection. Obviously, it’s not a perfect correlation, but it’s a valid observation.
This chart gets even more striking when you draw a tree map on a per capita basis:
Mortality, however raises interesting questions:
At no time, as far as I can tell, did any jurisdiction in the US face a hospital overflow problem that forced them to triage patients. With that in mind, why is there such a radical difference in mortality rates? You would think that the much maligned South, with higher rates of obesity, smoking, and diabetes would have higher rates; but they do not. Why do some jurisdictions that have done heavy testing (which should lower overall mortality rates, because you’re testing healthier patients) have higher rates that states which have neglected testing? Why have states with highly regarded medical facilities had higher mortality than states with less highly regarded facilities?
Speaking of testing (to the extent that it matters at this point), where are we on that?
I did also perform a per capita formula on that chart — congratulations, Tennessee, you’ve tested more than anyone else per capita — but as can be clearly seen, the large states are in the lead on this regard.
Obviously, there’s a lot we still don’t know. But the good news is that overall, mortality in the US (and the world, for that matter) seems to have peaked:
It’s hard not to like that chart.
So, a thought. If somebody tells you that they know for sure that it’s OK for a state to open up…..they’re guessing.
Conversely, if somebody tells you that they know for sure that “opening up” is going to turn into a bloodbath…..they’re guessing.
Time will tell.